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AsAmericasdigestthenewsofanothergunatrocity,amallshootinginNebraskaonDecember5th,theycannotbeblamedforthinkingthatgunsareintooreadysupply.ButanarticleinthelatestEconomicJournasuggeststhatthedemandforillegalguns,atleast,isnotmetaseasilyaspeoplemightfear.SudhirVenkatesh,nowofColumbiaUniversity,hastalkedto132gang-members,77prostitutes,116gun-owningyouths,23gun-dealersandnumerousotherdenizensofChicago'sGrandBoulevardandWashingtonParkneighbourhoods.Hedidnotfindmanysatisfiedcustomers.

Chicagohasunusuallytoughrestrictionsonlegalhandguns.Evensotheblackmarketissurprisingly“thin”,attractingrelativelyfewbuyersandsellers.Theauthorsreckonthatthe48,000residentsofthetwoneighbourhoodsbuyperhaps1,400gunsayear,comparedwithatleast200,000cocainepurchases.Undergroundbrokerssellgunsfor$150-350,amark-upofperhaps200%overthelegalprice.Theyalsodemandafeeof$30-50fororchestratingthedeal.Eventhen,30-40%ofthetransactionsfallthroughbecausethesellercannotsecureagun,getscoldfeetorcannotagreeonalocationforthedeal.

Buyersalsofindithardtoverifythequalityofthemerchandise.Theyoftenknowlittleabouttheweaponstheycovet.“Tony”,whoownsa.38calibrehandgun,learnthowtousehisweaponbyfiddlingwithit.Heevenputastoneinit.“Diditfire?”MrVenkateshasked.“I'mnotsure.Ithinkitdid,”Tonysaid.

FortunatelyforTonyandhispeers,theirrivalsandthevictimsofcrimecannottelliftheirgunsworkanybetterthantheycan.Often,showingthe“bulge”isenoughtogaintherespectofrivalgangs.Inrobberiesbrandishingtheweaponwillusuallydo.Storekeepersdonotwaitforproofthatitworks.

Marketscanovercomethinness,thepapersays;theycanalsoovercomeillegality.Buttheycannotovercomeboth.Athinmarketmustrelyonadvertisingoracentralisedexchange:eBay,forexample,hasdedicatedpagesmatchingsellersofimitationpearlpinsorAnnetteFunicellobearstothefew,scatteredbuyersthatcanbefound.Butsuchsolutionsaretoocumbersomeandconspicuousforanundergroundmarket.Thedrugsmarket,bycontrast,slipsthroughthelaw'sfingersbecauseofthenaturaldensityofdrugtransactions.Dealerscanalwaysfindcustomersontheirdoorstep,andbuyerscanreassurethemselvesaboutsuppliersthroughrepeatedcustom.Therearenofixedandformalinstitutionsthatthepolicecouldeasilythrottle.

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